S1 Episode 02: “Conflicts We Can (Not) Predict”

Show notes

ACLED (2019): Ten Conflicts to Worry About in 2020, https://acleddata.com/2020/01/23/ten-conflicts-to-worry-about-in-2020/

ACLED (2020): Mid-Year Update: Ten Conflicts to Worry About in 2020, https://acleddata.com/2020/08/18/mid-year-update-10-conflicts-to-worry-about-in-2020/#1597759395479-dd34f4e9-c05f

Cedermann, Lars-Erik, Nils B. Weidmann (2017): Predicting Armed Conflict: Time to Adjust Our Expectations? In: Science, 355(6324), 474-476, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6324/474

Chiba, Daina, Metternich, Nils W., & Ward, Michael D. (2015): Every Story Has a Beginning, Middle, and an End (But Not Always in That Order): Predicting Duration Dynamics in a Unified Framework, in: Political Science Research and Methods, 3(3), 515-541, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/abs/every-story-has-a-beginning-middle-and-an-end-but-not-always-in-that-order-predicting-duration-dynamics-in-a-unified-framework/6D6CD38441830E877284845252A985AB

Çiflikli, Gökhan, Metternich, Nils W., Weber, Sigrid, & Rickard, Kit (2019): Taking Time Seriously When Evaluating Predictions in Binary-Time-Series-Cross-Section-Data, SocArXiv, https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/tvshu

Graham, David A. (2014): Rumsfeld's Knowns and Unknowns: The Intellectual History of a Quip, in: The Atlantic (03/27/2014), https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/03/rumsfelds-knowns-and-unknowns-the-intellectual-history-of-a-quip/359719/

Kampf, David (2020): Why Ethiopia’s conflict could spill beyond its borders: Civil wars rarely remain purely domestic affairs, in: The Monkey Cage (12/01/2020), The Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/12/01/why-ethiopias-conflict-could-spill-beyond-its-borders/

Lilla, Mark (2020): No One Knows What’s Going to Happen: Stop asking pundits to predict the future after the coronavirus. It doesn’t exist, in: The New York Times, 05/22/2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-prediction-future.html

Metternich, Nils W., et al. (2019): Predicting the Severity of Civil Wars: An Actor-centric Approach, SocArXiv, https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/92y58

Rose, Gideon (2020): What’s Inside: How can responsible policymakers prepare for the next crisis while grappling with current ones? In: Foreign Affairs, November/December 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/issue-packages/2020-10-13/what-are-we-missing

Scoblic, J. Peter/ Tetlock, Philip E. (2020): A Better Crystal Ball: The Right Way to Think About the Future, in: Foreign Affairs, November/December 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-13/better-crystal-ball

Tetlock, Philip E. (2005): Expert Political Judgment: How Good is It? How can We Know? Princeton University Press.

Nils Metternich’s Choice for Best Books of 2020

Hultman, Lisa/ Kathman, Jacob D./ Shannon, Megan (2019): Peacekeeping in the Midst of War, Oxford University Press.

Pan, Jennifer (2020): Welfare for Autocrats: How Social Assistance in China Cares for Its Rulers, Oxford University Press.

Weidmann, Nils B./ Rød, Espen Geelmuyden (2019): The Internet and Political Protest in Autocracies, Oxford University Press.